Mexico’s Historic 2025 Judicial Elections: Winners, Controversies, and Political Implications
Explore the historic 2025 judicial elections in Mexico, voter turnout, Morena’s consolidation of power, the Supreme Court justices elected, and what this means for the US-Mexico relationship.
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Despite a record low voter turnout of just 13%, Morena secured significant control over the Supreme Court, further consolidating its political power under the 4th Transformation (4T) movement. This post breaks down the election results, introduces the newly elected Supreme Court justices, explores controversies surrounding acordeones, and examines what this means for the future of Mexico’s judiciary and the US-Mexico relationship, especially amid ongoing trade uncertainties.
Read Part I of this series on Mexico’s judicial elections.
Mexico’s First-Ever Judicial Elections: Overview and Voter Turnout
On Sunday, Mexicans went to the polls to vote in the country’s first-ever judicial elections. Nearly 13 million people voted in the 2025 judicial election in Mexico, constituting just 13% of the country’s voting-eligible population. This marks the lowest voter turnout in an election in the past 30 years. While supporters of the judicial elections argued that low turnout in non-presidential contests was to be expected, the actual level of voter participation was quite low, though within the National Electoral Institute’s (INE) turnout estimates, which ranged from 8 to 20%. Of the 116.6 million votes cast, only 77% were valid votes. 12.6 million ballots (10.8%) were annulled votes, and another 14 million ballots (12%) were left blank. According to El Economista, the number of annulled votes in this election surpassed the previous record of 5.4% annulled votes in the 2009 midterm election.
Partisan Influence Despite Non-Partisan Rules
Though the elections were ostensibly non-partisan, with candidates barred from receiving endorsements from current politicians and/or political parties, partisan interference certainly played a role in the election outcome. As of today, June 4th, the INE has received 29 election violation complaints accusing both Morena (the current ruling party) and Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) of distributing “acordeones” – physical and digital guides directing voters how to vote for candidates supported by each party.1 The site for Morena, called Poder Judicial 4T (Judicial Power 4th Transformation), can be found here. The site is comprehensive, listing each of Mexico’s 32 federal entities. On each of the 32 state-specific site pages are examples of the ballots with the preferred candidates selected. It’s worth noting that days before the election, the INE explicitly prohibited the use of acordeones. It’s also worth noting that all nine candidates listed on Morena’s acordeón won seats on the Supreme Court.
Who are the newly elected Supreme Court justices?
With 91.7% of the votes counted, the nine candidates who received the greatest vote share for the position of Supreme Court Justice have been identified. The election results will be certified on June 15. Of the nine seats, five are legally required to be held by women and four by men. Of the nine judges, five are closely affiliated with Morena in some capacity. Three of the newly elected Supreme Court justices are currently serving on the Supreme Court and were initially appointed by AMLO during his presidency. One judge previously served as a legal advisor to AMLO, while another worked as a congressional advisor to Morena.
Hugo Aguilar Ortiz
6.19 million votes (5.3%)2
A Mixtec lawyer from the state of Oaxaca, Hector Aguilar Ortiz secured the greatest number of votes in the election, thus making him the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Aguilar has dedicated his career to the legal defense of indigenous affairs. He currently serves as the General Coordinator of Indigenous Rights at Mexico’s National Institute of Indigenous Peoples (INPI). He previously represented the Zapatista National Liberation Army during the San Andrés Larraízar peace talks in Chiapas in 1996. Throughout his career, Aguilar has held various roles in public service defending Mexico’s indigenous communities, including serving as the Undersecretary of Indigenous Rights in the Secretariat of Indigenous Affairs of the Government of Oaxaca. He is only the second person of indigenous heritage to serve as chief justice of the Supreme Court, the other being the former president of Mexico, Benito Juárez. Of note, Aguilar does not have any prior experience as a judge. He is not explicitly affiliated with Morena, but joined the federal government during AMLO’s term. He worked with the AMLO administration on various consultation projects, including the Tren Maya and the Felipe Ángeles International Airport.
Lenia Batres Guardarrama
5.8 million votes (4.97%)
Lenia Batres Guardarrama is currently a judge on Mexico’s Supreme Court, directly appointed by AMLO in 2023 after the Senate failed to confirm any of his three nominees. This direct appointment was unprecedented and raised significant concerns about the politicization of Mexico’s highest court.
Originally from Mexico City, Batres’ career spans 35 years. An attorney by training, Batres’ public service career began in 1988 when she joined INEGI. For the next decade, she worked as a journalist and eventually became an advisor to the Chamber of Deputies in 1994. She was elected as a federal deputy, representing the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD, the forerunner to Morena), in 1997. She served in the local Federal District government in the early 2000s, eventually becoming the advisor to AMLO when he served as the Head of Government of the Federal District. She served as a technical secretary in the Chamber of Deputies from 2006 until 2009 and then served as a Chamber of Deputies parliamentary advisor to the PRD from 2012 until 2015. Batres served as an advisor to Claudia Sheinbaum from 2015 to 2018 when the latter served as Mayor of Tlalpan. She continued her work with Sheinbaum during her term as Head of Government of Mexico City, working as a legal advisor to the Secretariat of Urban Development and Housing. She left this role in 2021 to serve on the legal counsel team of then-president AMLO. Batres has been a member of Morena since the party’s inception in 2014, and her family maintains close ties to the party. Her brother, Martí Batres, currently serves as the Sheinbaum administration’s head of the ISSSTE (Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers). He previously served as the interim Head of Government of Mexico City, as the party president of Morena, and as a federal deputy representing Morena.
Yasmín Esquivel Mossa
5.3 million votes (4.55%)
Yasmín Esquivel Mossa is a current member of Mexico’s Supreme Court, appointed by AMLO in 2019. Originally from Mexico City, she is a lawyer by training and began her public service career in 1985, working as a legal aid in Mexico City’s Justice Department. She led the Administrative Court of Mexico City in 2012 and again in 2019. Esquivel also served as the president of the Mexican Association of Magistrates of Administrative Justice Courts. Esquivel is known for her efforts to modernize Mexico’s judicial system, specifically through gender parity. However, she was at the center of controversy in 2022 after a journalistic investigation into her undergraduate thesis revealed “high levels of similarities” between her thesis, written in 1987, and another thesis published the year prior. A civil court determined that she was the legitimate author of the thesis. While Esquivel’s party affiliation is not explicitly listed, she is a close ally of Morena, and has cast votes in favor of several key reforms during the AMLO administration, including the including the constitutionality of the electoral reform, known as “Plan B”, and changes to Mexico’s Electric Industry Law – both of which were ultimately deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.
Loretta Ortiz Ahlf
5.01 million votes (4.29%)
Loretta Ortiz Ahlf is currently a judge on Mexico’s Supreme Court. She was appointed by AMLO in 2021. Ortiz is an attorney by training and possesses nearly 40 years of legal experience. She is originally from Mexico City and has held various positions within the Mexican government, including the Secretary of Foreign Affairs and the Bank of Mexico. As a member of the PRD, she was elected as a federal deputy in 2012. She left the party to help found Morena in 2014. She worked closely with the AMLO administration on various pacification projects around the country, and in 2018, AMLO mentioned Ortiz as a potential candidate for the Supreme Court. As such, Ortiz left Morena that same year, citing impartiality, and remains politically unaffiliated. In 2021, she was named to the court and played a key role in supporting reforms proposed by AMLO, including the electoral reform and changes to the Electricity Industry Law. Though she is politically unaffiliated, Ortiz is considered an ally of Morena and has proven herself to be a staunch supporter of the party’s reforms.
María Estela Ríos González
4.72 million votes (4.05%)
María Estela Ríos González currently serves as the General Director of the Belisario Domínguez Institute of the Senate. Originally from Mexico City, she is a lawyer by training with over 50 years of legal experience. While her legal career began in the 1970s working in labor and union law, she is most well known for her legal work during the 1990s, specifically litigation efforts on NAFTA in 1994, then representing women in Ciudad Juarez during the femicide crisis at the maquiladoras in Chihuahua, and working on the San Andrés Larráinzar agreement between the Mexican government and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation. Ríos served in the government of Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas during his term as Head of Government of the Federal District. She served as the legal advisor to AMLO when he was the Head of Government of Mexico City and again during his presidency. Ríos was originally shortlisted for a Supreme Court seat by AMLO in 2023, but ultimately failed to gain Senate confirmation. Despite this, Ríos has remained a staunch supporter of various reforms proposed by AMLO, including the creation of the National Guard and the judicial reform. Ríos is politically unaffiliated, but a strong proponent of Morena’s policy proposals.
Giovanni Azael Figueroa Mejía
3.65 million votes (3.13%)
Giovanni Azael Figueroa Mejía is a lawyer who currently teaches at the Iberoamericana University in Mexico City, focusing on constitutional law. Unlike the majority of his fellow Supreme Court justices, who are from Mexico City, Figueroa is from the state of Nayarit. He has worked as a lawyer for over two decades and initially began his public service career in the state court of Nayarit. In 2014, Figueroa served as an advisor to the president of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Judiciary. Figueroa is politically unaffiliated.
Irving Espinosa Betanzo
3.587 million votes (3.074%)
Originally from Mexico City, Irving Espinosa Betanzo is an attorney by training and currently serves as a magistrate on Mexico City’s Supreme Court. Throughout the past three decades, Espinosa has worked within all three branches of Mexico’s government. He began his public service career in the late 1990s and eventually worked with Ernestina Godoy, Claudia Sheinbaum’s current legal advisor, with whom he has worked closely throughout the years. Espinosa was a member of the PRD and worked closely with the government of Clara Brugada, who was then mayor of Iztapalapa (and who currently serves as the Head of Government of Mexico City and is affiliated with Morena). Though he has worked closely with politicians from the PRD and Morena, Espinosa is politically unaffiliated.
Arístides Rodrigo Guerrero García
3.584 million votes (3.072%)
Arístides Rodrigo Guerrero García is a lawyer from Mexico City whose professional career has focused on transparency and data protection. He is the youngest member of the Supreme Court at 41 years old. Guerrero launched his public service career in 2015 in the Electoral Court of Mexico City, where he eventually served as the Director of Statistics and Jurisprudence. He was appointed Commissioner of Mexico City’s Institute of Transparency and Access to Information in 2018. In 2025, he was named representative of the government of Chiapas in Mexico City. He is perhaps most well-known for his viral campaign video in which he stated that he’s “more prepared than a pork rind” (más preparado que un chicharrón) – a play on words that captured public attention.
Sara Irene Herrerías Guerra
3.26 million votes (2.8%)
Sara Irene Herrerías Guerra is a Mexico City-born lawyer. Since 2016, she has served as a prosecutor for Mexico City’s Attorney’s Office, specializing in human rights. She is known for her work regarding the 2023 fire at a migrant detention facility in Ciudad Juárez, which claimed the lives of 40 migrants. Herrerías’ public service is extensive. Her career began in the late 1980s when she worked in the Reclusorio Preventitivo Sur and later as a legal advisor to organizations dedicated to combating HIV/AIDS. In the 1990s, she began working for the National Commission on Human Rights and then assumed the role of General Director of Equality Program in 2008. She was appointed by then-President Felipe Calderón as social prosecutor for victims of crimes of federal crimes in 2011. Herrerías served as an advisor to the Attorney General’s Chief of Staff in 2014 and a year later was appointed head of the Ministry of the Interior’s Unit for the Defense of Human Rights. She is politically unaffiliated.
President Sheinbaum’s Comments on the Election Results
Unsurprisingly, President Sheinbaum’s comments about the judicial elections have been resoundingly positive, regardless of the low voter turnout. Throughout her mañaneras this week, Sheinbaum has consistently underscored the success of the elections and went so far as to characterize Mexico as the “most democratic country in the world.” She highlighted that voter turnout for the judicial elections (13 million) was greater than the number of individuals who voted for the PRI (5.7 million) and the PAN (9.6 million) in the 2024 presidential election in an attempt to discredit claims of election illegitimacy due to low voter turnout. In the face of threats of protest against the election, the head of the INE, Guadalupe Taddei, has affirmed the constitutionality of the elections, stating that there would be no constitutional crisis.
Why Mexico’s Judicial Elections Matter: Implications for Mexico and the US-Mexico Relationship
Exactly one year and one day after the historic election of Claudia Sheinbaum, Morena made history again as the only political party to control all three branches of Mexico’s government. Though no longer in office, AMLO’s specter shines bright and will continue to shine as the newly appointed court adjudicates reforms that trace their roots back to the former president. Ironically, AMLO has remained largely out of the public eye since leaving office last year, only emerging on Sunday to vote in the judicial elections. And yet, AMLO’s presence in Mexican politics remains outsized, embodied in these consequential elections that will define his legacy. Maybe even more enduring, however, are their implications for the future of democracy in Mexico.
These elections, but perhaps more importantly, Morena’s now-solidified control of the judicial branch represents the crowning glory of the 4T movement, a long-sought-after achievement in further expanding and securing the party’s far-reaching and wide-ranging political control. While time will only tell how these justices will vote, if precedent teaches us anything, we can expect allegiance to the 4T and support for the reforms that the president and party put forth. AMLO made clear that loyalty to the 4th Transformation is rewarded with key positions of influence and authority. This election reaffirmed as much.
As for the US-Mexico relationship, the judicial elections present another layer of uncertainty in an already volatile landscape, heightened by rapidly evolving policy decisions on the US side, particularly in terms of trade. The Trump administration’s unpredictable and unwieldy use of trade policy to non-trade-related issues has already caused significant challenges in the investment landscape as companies struggle to plan accordingly, with tariffs seemingly changing on a month-to-month basis. Now, Mexico is adding to the uncertainty of the investment climate with companies reconsidering investments in Mexico amid concerns over whether they will receive impartial treatment in the face of legal disputes.
I have searched for a similar acordeones for MC, but haven’t found anything yet.
The vote count was last updated June 5. For more up-to-date results, please visit the INE’s site - https://computospj2025.ine.mx/scjn/nacional/candidatos
Alexandra! Just found your Substack. I wrote about that today too. How the 13% turnout isn't the whole story, but just a move in a longer game