Andrés Manuel López Beltrán’s First Test: What the Durango and Veracruz Elections Say About Morena’s Future

Two overlooked local contests offer a revealing snapshot of Morena’s internal challenges, the rise of Movimiento Ciudadano, and the political debut of AMLO’s heir apparent.

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Overlooked but Telling: What the Durango and Veracruz Elections Reveal About Morena

Much of the recent attention on Mexico’s electoral landscape has centered on the judicial elections, and rightly so. But two significant state-level contests have flown under the radar: municipal elections in Durango and Veracruz. These votes not only served as a political litmus test for the current administration but also provided an early assessment of Morena’s new leadership, particularly its newly appointed Organizational Secretary, Andrés Manuel López Beltrán.

Durango Results Show PRI Resilience Despite Morena’s Efforts

With a turnout close to 45%, the PAN-PRI coalition "Unity and Greatness for Durango" secured 15 municipalities, while the PRI alone won five additional municipalities. Morena and its allies (Partido Trabajador and Partido Verde) won 14 municipalities as a coalition, with Morena securing just two municipalities on its own. In other words, the PRI and its allies control 20 out of Durango’s 39 municipalities, including Durango city (the capital) and Lerdo, the state’s third-largest economic center. Morena and allies, on the other hand, only hold 16 municipalities, down from the 18 municipalities won in the previous election.

Morena did reclaim Gómez Palacio, the second-largest and second-most economically significant municipality, a modest but symbolic gain. Meanwhile, Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) increased its presence, winning three municipalities - up from one in the previous cycle.

Though Morena lost two municipalities overall, the bigger picture is clear: the PRI retained its dominance, MC made gains, and Morena failed to flip the state - a key goal for party leadership.

Veracruz Election Exposes Cracks in Morena’s Stronghold

Veracruz, currently governed by Morena, saw voter participation at nearly 50%, the lowest voter turnout in recent years. The PAN won 34 municipalities and the PRI 23. Morena and its ally Partido Verde together secured 60 municipalities, while Morena and PV independently won 11 and 13 municipalities, respectively. However, despite recapturing two key municipalities from the PAN, Morena and its allies lost 19 municipalities compared to the previous election.

Perhaps the most notable shift: MC tripled its vote count, securing more than 570,000 votes, emerging as the single party with the most votes. Only the Morena-PV coalition outpaced MC in total votes, but the message is clear: MC is now a powerful second force in the state.

Of note, Morena has filed allegations of fraud in over 30 municipalities across both states (source).

Andrés Manuel López Beltrán: Morena’s New Power Player

A key figure behind these elections is Andrés Manuel López Beltrán. If the name doesn’t give it away, López Beltrán is the son of the former Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and his first wife, Rocío Beltrán Medina. Until last year, López Beltrán had remained a relatively anonymous figure in Mexican politics, supporting his father’s presidential aspirations in the 2006, 2012, and 2018 elections, while simultaneously working to expand and strengthen Morena’s reach and influence – but in an unofficial capacity. Just one week before AMLO left office, López Beltrán was named the organizational secretary of Morena in a unanimous vote. Notably, during his presidency, AMLO pledged that none of his sons would engage in politics until he left office.

In this new role, López Beltrán is tasked with coordinating Morena’s electoral activity across the country and at all levels of government. He manages the party’s US $100+ million budget and is responsible for every candidate put forth by the party. López Beltrán also plays a key role in managing Morena’s voter registry (called the National Registry of Protagonists of True Change), ensuring continued allegiance to the party through strategic outreach efforts, specifically, the party’s well-known pension programs, and fostering continuity with Morena’s state commissions. Just weeks after starting his new role, López Beltrán, in the spirit of his father, embarked on a national tour with the goal of recruiting 10 million new members of Morena. But the elections in Durango and Veracruz marked López Beltrán’s first real political test — and the results have fueled serious criticism.

López Beltrán’s First Test: Mixed Results and Growing Criticism

The poor outcome of the local elections in Durango and Veracruz, combined with the egregiously low nationwide voter turnout in the judicial elections, raised serious criticisms of Morena, the party’s leadership, and, of course, López Beltrán himself. The party’s failure to capture votes is seen as a direct reflection of López Beltrán’s missteps, despite his high-profile move to the state and coordination of campaign efforts that included visits from more than 50 federal deputies. Critics argue that the elections in Durango and Veracruz are a microcosm of Mexico itself, with Morena’s support waning and Movimiento Ciudadano in the wings, ready to recapture disenfranchised Morena supporters.

Despite the public criticisms, leaders at all levels within Morena, from President Sheinbaum to local party operatives, have maintained the party’s success in the elections. On a recent Morena-sponsored podcast with party leader Luisa María Alcalde, Andrés Manuel López Beltrán defended the party’s performance. He argued that while Morena won fewer municipalities in Durango, the percentage of the population governed by the party increased from 15% to 33%. He also alleged electoral irregularities, particularly involving the PRI’s coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies.

Claiming the Legacy: López Beltrán Steps Into AMLO’s Shadow

But beyond the expected political spin, the podcast revealed something more telling: López Beltrán’s open embrace of his father’s legacy. He claimed that media outlets and opposition voices in Durango deliberately avoided using his full name of Andrés Manuel López, out of fear for what the name represents.

“My greatest pride is to be named after the best president this country has ever had. Calling me ‘Andy’ diminishes that; it strips me of that legacy.”

With that declaration, López Beltrán signaled his arrival, not just as AMLO’s son, but as his heir, in name and in mission.

What’s Next for Morena — and for López Beltrán?

The recent elections in Durango and Veracruz offer more than local-level intrigue. They signal the growing pains of a party in transition, one that is trying to balance electoral dominance and internal party division.

For López Beltrán, the results are a warning shot. Whether he emerges as a real political force or merely the heir to a powerful name will depend on what he does next.