Explainer: Candidate Selection for Mexico's 2024 Presidential Election
Though Morena and Frente Amplio por México will each put forth one candidate for the presidential election, their candidate selection processes and mechanisms are distinct. Here's how they differ...
As summer progresses, the political scene in Mexico ahead of the country’s 2024 presidential election cycle has become increasingly active and the candidate pool even more crowded. As of now, several candidates or “corcholatas”1 have emerged, vying for the opportunity to represent the Morena party and the Frente Amplio por México (FAM) coalition (comprised of comprised of Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), and Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD)).
As of now, the race for the presidency is between two contenders: Morena (the current ruling party of Mexico) and the Frente, and each has their own selection mechanism for choosing a candidate to compete in the presidential election.
Morena’s candidate selection strategy:
Morena will utilize nationwide surveys (open to all Mexicans) as the primary metric to select its presidential candidate. Interested candidates were required to resign from their public positions and officially register as candidates for the election in mid-June. Official campaigning began June 19th and will last until August 27th. Candidates have spent the past few weeks traveling across the country participating in “asembleas informativas” to increase name recognition and share their platforms.
The surveys that will be used to determine Morena’s candidate will consist of one primary survey and four subordinate control surveys. A maximum of six candidates will participate in the survey. As of now, there are four candidates: Marcelo Ebrard, Claudia Sheinbaum, Adán Augusto López Hernández, and Ricardo Monreal2. Two other candidates from Morena’s politically allied parties, Gerardo Fernández, from Partido del Trabajo and Manuel Velasco, from Partido Verde, are also eligible to participate. The surveys, the first of which will be designed and administered by Morena’s survey commission, will be carried out by four different polling companies from August 28th until September 3rd. For the other four control surveys, candidates will suggest two polling firms each and a total of four polling firms will be randomly selected to conduct the additional four polls. Should the results across the surveys differ, the three to four surveys that do coincide will be the ones from which the candidate is ultimately selected. The results of the surveys and the naming of the official candidate will be released on September 6th. Party officials have made clear that the survey results are final and unappealable, while also offering, in a conciliatory fashion, that the non-selected candidates will have significant roles in the next administration.
Interestingly enough, while Morena’s selection strategy seems quite straightforward and abstract, detailed stipulations regarding what is and is not permissible have been released, including prohibitions on candidates confronting their rivals, current government officials openly supporting candidates, and candidates giving media interviews and restrictions on the use of public resources to advertise campaigns.
Frente Amplio por México’s candidate selection strategy:
The Frente Amplio por México, has announced a multi-stage process for candidate selection which includes signature collections, debates, survey and poll data, and primary elections.
Of the 33 individuals who expressed interest in representing the coalition for the presidency, 13 candidates emerged – 10 of which are from one of the three political parties in the alliance and three of which are members of civil society. To advance in the election process, candidates had from July 12 to August 5th to collect a minimum of 150,000 signatures from voters in at least 17 different states supporting their candidacy. Upon conclusion of this phase of the selection process, eligible candidates will advance to the August 10th forum during which they’ll share their “vision of Mexico.”
As of August 9th, 2023, the following candidates3 have advanced to the next round:
Xóchitl Gálvez - 554,699
Beatriz Paredes- 451,934
Santiago Creel - 358,735
Enrique de la Madrid - 344,729
After the debate, the coalition will conduct various public opinion polls and will select the top three candidates to advance to the next round. From there, these candidates will participate in five additional forums and further opinion polls will be conducted from August 17th until August 30th.
Frente por México Forum Schedule:
Tijuana - August 17
Monterrey - August 19
León - August 22
Guadalajara - August 24
Mérida - August 26
The results of these polls will be released on September 3rd and the Frente will host primary elections. The opinion polls and the primary election will each have 50% weight and the primary candidate with the best score will advance to become the candidate for the Frente.
Though the coalition’s emphasis on a fair and democratic approach to candidate selection with well-established measures has received praise, it has been subject to significant criticism, particularly from ranking members of the parties, including Claudia Ruiz Massieu from the PRI and Lilly Téllez from the PAN. Both women are significant figures in their respective parties, but elected not to participate in this year’s selection process, calling the new selection mechanism a “simulation,” really conducted by “partisan or corporate clientelism” and from “the oligarchs of the old regime,” and not by voters. The commentary, and perhaps even more significantly, the decision not to participate in the selection process, highlights the discord within the coalition.
A means of highlighting both the evolution of Mexico’s politics, but also the staunch remnants of previous decades of Mexican politics is clear with the use of the term “corcholata” – a word that in traditional Mexican Spanish means bottle cap, but colloquially refers to presidential hopefuls. The term’s first use in the political context occurred in the late 1970’s, but it wasn’t until 2021 when the term reemerged, thanks to AMLO. During the PRI’s uninterrupted, 71 year-long rule in Mexico, presidential candidates were identified and hand-selected by the ruling president, a process called “el dedazo” (or the finger pointing). The pre-selected candidate was then then “destapado” (revealed) to the public and eventually won the “democratic” election. There’s a play on words here – “destapar” means to uncover – both in the sense of revealing but also in the sense of taking the lid off of something. In this context, AMLO is transforming the concept of the traditional “destape” into a more democratic notion, even going so far as to say “Yo soy el destapador y mi corcholata favorita será la del pueblo” (“I am the bottle opener and my favorite bottle cap will be the one chosen by the people").
All of whom were recently high ranking officials in the Morena-led government: Ebrard - Former Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico, Sheinbaum - Former Head of Government of Mexico City, López Hernández - Former Secretary of the Interior. Monreal most recently served as Senator representing the state of Zacatecas.
Though Silvano Aureoles (288,000 signatures), Miguel Ángel Mancera (195,548 signatures), and Francisco Cabeza de Vaca (195,548 signatures) managed to surpass the 150,000 minimum of signatures, Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE) determined that these signatures were not from across 17 different states, therefore disqualifying these candidates from advancing to the next stage of the selection process.