The Final Step in AMLO’s Legacy Consolidation? The 5 Reforms up for Vote in September
The final month of AMLO's presidency will hold key answers for the next chapter in the country's politics, economic competitiveness, and history.
Mexico’s elections have come and gone. For many, a Morena victory was a foregone conclusion. But, the extent of Morena’s victory, the sheer number of votes Sheinbaum captured, and the party’s (and overall, the coalition’s) overwhelming success in the legislative elections, both at the local and federal levels, were unexpected. Sheinbaum received 6 million more votes than AMLO did just six years prior. These results have set in motion the next chapter of history in Mexico.
While there is both enthusiasm and concern for Sheinbaum’s presidency, attention must be paid to the interim period – specifically the month of September – which marks the final 30 days of AMLO’s presidency and the start of the new legislative session, when Mexico’s newly elected members of Congress will take office. In traditional AMLO fashion, it appears that he will be anything but a lame duck during the last month of his presidency, instead potentially forever altering the trajectory of politics in Mexico with his pending reforms, specifically the judicial reform.
In February of this year, AMLO put forth a series of 20 proposed reforms, all of which ranged in scope and significance, but 18 of which required changes to the Constitution. With the end of his presidency looming and time dwindling, AMLO has narrowed his focus and promised to pursue five reforms during the September legislative session. These reforms are signature elements of AMLO’s legacy, but one in particular, the proposal for judicial reform, could have significant consequences should it pass.
The elimination of re-election
Following the 2030 elections, no position that is elected via popular vote is eligible for re-election. (Of note, a 2014 reform permitted re-election, but prior to this reform, re-election had been forbidden since 1933)
Pensions for women ages 60 to 64 years old
This reform would expand the current pension scheme for the elderly in Mexico under which Mexicans 65+ are eligible. According to comments made by the president-elect, this reform is to acknowledge and appreciate the work of women at home which has historically been undervalued. Under this reform, an additional 2.86 million women would be eligible to receive $1,500 pesos per month in 2025 (half of the current pension). According to IMCO, pension will cost $53,456,000,000 pesos per year ($2,950,343,552 USD) – a high price tag for an administration that has promised not to raise taxes nor make significant changes to fiscal policy.
Reform to ISSSTE 2007 law to increase pensions for primary teachers in public schools
The exact details of this reform remain unclear at the moment, but it was put forth at various moments during Sheinbaum’s campaign by public school teachers. The reform proposes progressive changes to the retirement age and improved retirement conditions for teachers.
Scholarships for pre-k, elementary, and middle school students
This reform is based on one of Sheinbaum’s signature achievements during her time as Head of Government of Mexico City during which she launched “Mi Beca para Empezar” which granted $600-650 pesos to pre-k, elementary, and middle school students in public schools. Slated to launch in 2025, this scholarship will be called “Beca Universal” and will begin with 6 million middle school students who will receive in total $34,000,000,000 pesos per year. More than 21 million Mexican public school students will receive this scholarship.
Judicial reform
The judicial reform is arguably the most significant and controversial of any of the reforms ever discussed or put forth by AMLO. This reform calls for the direct, popular election of members of Mexico’s judicial branch – though the exact scope (namely whether the reform will call for the popular election for Mexico’s entire federal judicial branch, or just the Supreme Court) is still unclear. Judicial branch elections are to take place every three years with the current members of the judicial branch expected to continue holding existing office until 2025. Other key elements in this version of the judicial reform include a reduction in the number of members of the Supreme Court from 11 to 9. The term length for justices will be 12 years, instead of 15. The court will only hold plenary sessions, thus eliminating private sessions. Proposal to require only 6 votes for sentencing.
Despite concerns from legal experts within Mexico and the international community at large, from comments made by both AMLO and Sheinbaum, it appears that a vote on the judicial reform will go ahead in September (though Sheinbaum has said that public consultations on the topic will be held). The exact nature of the judicial reform remains to be seen and key questions regarding its scope have yet to be answered, but public mentions and discussions of this reform have already triggered concern, such as the peso’s 2% dip after Sheinbaum promised to pursue the reform. The implications of this reform are serious, predominantly for the well-being of democracy and rule of law in Mexico. More tangibly, this reform, should it pass, will undoubtedly have a significant impact on Mexico’s economic competitiveness and ability to attract foreign investment.
AMLO’s presidential term is nearly complete but it appears that he won’t leave office without a bang. The final month of his presidency will hold key answers for the next chapter in Mexico’s politics, economic competitiveness, and history.
I think the creation of the new Pension Fund is a huge reform. The government says that workers earning up to 16,000 pesos in their last year will collect 100%.
Amafore just transferred 24.2 billion pesos to the new fund, apparently from inactive accounts owned by people who are 70. (https://www.jornada.com.mx/noticia/2024/07/01/economia/concluye-amafore-traspaso-de-24-2-mil-mdp-al-fondo-de-pensiones-2636) It sounds as if these are fictitious, which makes sense when you consider how evil and corrupt the Mexican government was in 1997 when the corporation was set up. What's the expression, airplane jobs? Where people only show up on payday?
This article explains the new Pension Fund pretty well. https://politica.expansion.mx/presidencia/2024/04/12/fondo-de-pensiones-estara-en-mayo-para-primeros-jubilados-del-97-preve-amlo