The Trump-Sheinbaum Era: Navigating a More Volatile US-Mexico Relationship

US-Mexico relations face mounting strain from the Trump administration's remittance taxes, deportation raids, and digital diplomacy clashes.

A Renewed Era of Tension

Seemingly overnight, the US and Mexico have entered a new phase of the bilateral relationship, one marked by heightened tensions as the Trump administration escalates its threat of tariffs against Mexico, proposes taxes on remittances, and conducts immigration raids. The current dynamic reflects longstanding patterns that have shaped US-Mexico relations since Trump’s first term and throughout the AMLO administration, with continuity, albeit more intense under the Sheinbaum administration. The pattern is familiar: Washington applies pressure and Mexico publicly affirms its sovereignty, privately complying with the request made by the US government.

Current Status of the US-Mexico Relationship: Old Patterns, New Intensity

Sheinbaum has consistently underscored her administration’s commitment to maintaining a relationship with the US, one based on respect, cooperation, and mutual aid. However, Trump’s return to the White House has brought significant challenges. The nearly constant stream of threats of tariffs, pressure to address security concerns, and constant demands to address immigration flows have proved a challenge for the Sheinbaum administration. We’re witnessing the US government utilize tools of economic policy to incentivize change in non-trade-related areas, including security and migration.

While this approach traces its roots back to the first Trump administration, what’s different now, however, is the added layer of brazenness from the Trump administration. The circumstances feel more urgent and intense. Deportation raids are no longer abstract policy debates; they are unfolding on the ground, in communities, in real time. The humanitarian impact is immediate and visible. Elements of this approach existed before, but the scale and tone have reached new heights. The Sheinbaum administration faces mounting pressure to respond decisively, under the gaze of both domestic constituencies and the international community.

Throughout the tensions, Sheinbaum has largely kept a cool head in navigating Trump’s provocations, earning her praise and high public approval ratings. According to the May survey done by El Economista, Sheinbaum’s public approval rating is 70.4% - the highest it’s been since she took office last fall. Her administration has projected a sense of maturity, opting for strategic patience over escalating rhetoric. However, recent developments have tested this equilibrium. Sheinbaum’s opposition to the proposed US tax on remittances, stating “if necessary, we will mobilize,” has sparked backlash among Trump administration officials, who view the comments as a challenge to Washington’s authority.

Controversy Over Remittances Tax

On May 22^nd, the US House of Representatives passed a bill stipulating a 3.5% tax on remittances, down from the 5% originally proposed by the Trump administration. Three days later, President Sheinbaum expressed discontent with the proposal, stating that “If necessary, we will mobilize, because we don't want taxes on remittances from our fellow countrymen.” For context, in 2023, remittances to Mexico constituted 3.7% of the country’s total GDP. In response to Sheinbaum’s comments against the tax, US Senator Eric Schmitt proposed a 15% increase in the remittance tax on June 9th, with several fellow Republicans echoing the sentiment. The situation further escalated when Gerardo Fernández Noroña, the President of Mexico’s Senate and member of Morena, mocked the Trump administration’s plans to impose tariffs, thus further triggering the ire of Schmitt. A day later, the US senator announced via X plans to raise the remittance tax an additional 5%, making the total tax on remittances 20%. Of note, remittances from the US to Mexico are not currently taxed.

On June 6^th, protests began in LA against the Trump administration’s immigration raids and deportations. Four days later, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem accused Sheinbaum of inciting these violent protests, co-opting her comments in opposition to the remittance tax and instead applying them to the immigration raids. Sheinbaum fervently denied the allegations, stating that Mexico has always been against violent protests, but “On the other hand, our position is and will continue to be the defense of honest, hardworking Mexicans who support the United States economy and their families in Mexico.” Sheinbaum underscored the importance of maintaining respect and equality in the bilateral relationship. She argued that her comments were taken out of context and that they go against Mexico, characterizing them as “antipatriotic.” She stated that instead of making comments encouraging violent protests, Mexicans should be supporting each other, especially those undergoing difficulties in the wake of the Trump administration.

In the initial days of the conflict, politicians came to Sheinbaum’s defense and supported the right to protest, including Noroña, who expressed support for the protests, conveying his pride for the Mexican community in the US defending their rights. However, as tensions have increasingly escalated, Sheinbaum has encouraged unity among members of her party, encouraging them to “…stop playing politics on social media and connect with the people, always be on the ground." One day later, on June 11, President Sheinbaum met with Deputy Secretary of State and former ambassador to Mexico, Christopher Landau. Read Landau’s bio here.

Christopher Landau’s Social Media Clash with Morena Leader

Just one day after meeting with President Sheinbaum, Landau took to X to publicly rebuke Melissa Cornejo, a local Morena leader in Jalisco. Cornejo had condemned the Trump administration’s crackdown on protests and, in vulgar terms not repeated here, urged the US government to 'shove' her visa.

In a public post that directly tagged Cornejo, Landau announced that he had personally ordered her visa to be revoked, only to be informed that she did not currently hold an active one. He added that individuals who 'glorify violence' or 'challenge the legitimacy of US authorities' are not welcome in the United States. While visa cancellations have become increasingly common, particularly for individuals with alleged links to organized crime (including politicians and musicians), the rationale and public nature of this case sent a clear message.

The episode has sparked widespread outrage in Mexico, where critics view it as a troubling encroachment on freedom of expression and a warning to individuals who speak out against the US government. Though Morena leaders swiftly distanced themselves from Cornejo’s comments and instead called for responsible behavior from party members, the broader concern remains: that the Trump administration is willing to use visa policy as a tool to punish dissent.

What Comes Next?

President Sheinbaum faces a difficult balancing act: reaffirming sovereignty and standing firm in public, while grappling privately with the asymmetry of the relationship. Despite her calls for mutual respect and cooperation, the mounting humanitarian fallout and geopolitical pressure risk pulling the bilateral relationship into a more fragile and reactive state.

Sheinbaum’s attendance at the G7 summit marks a sharp departure from the approach of her predecessor, who took pride in avoiding multilateral forums. In contrast, President Sheinbaum has embraced international engagement, holding a series of high-level bilateral meetings throughout the summit. However, all eyes were on her anticipated encounter with President Trump, which was abruptly postponed when he returned to Washington following the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Instead of meeting in person, the two leaders held a phone call, an anticlimactic but telling reflection of the current unpredictability in the bilateral relationship.