Under Attack or on the Attack? AMLO’s Dog Whistles
By using the words "golpe de estado" and "guerra sucia," on a national, government-sponsored platform, AMLO is playing a dangerous game.
When referencing the idea of “a sudden, violent, and unlawful seizure of power from government,” English speakers have to borrow from French, German, or Spanish to name the concept: coup d’etat, putsch, or golpe de estado. Though English speakers understand the phenomenon, a succinct descriptor in English doesn’t exist.
Looking solely at the case of Spanish, specifically in Latin America, the three words – golpe de estado – carry significant weight. The term is most commonly used in reference to the change in power that precipitated the guerras sucias (“dirty wars”) which were state-sponsored terrorism campaigns carried out in the late 1960’s through the 1980’s (and in some countries, like Chile, until the 1990’s). The dirty wars targeted movements that directly “threatened democracy” in the face of expanding communism and the Cold War. Victims were not military adversaries, but rather intellectuals, student leaders, union members, activists – anyone threatening the status quo.
The occurrence of state-led violence in Mexico is undeniable, but whether it constitutes a dirty war is debated among experts. Regardless, the term conveys significant implications and isn’t used lightly. So, when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador used it during his mañanera this week, pundits, political analysts, and average citizens alike were shocked. He claimed that the opposition is planning a technical golpe de estado with the support of the country’s judicial branch and electoral authorities. When asked if the opposition is betting on the nullification of the election results AMLO replied:
"… this is how they [the opposition] are, who knows what polls they are looking at, who knows what the people are thinking that makes them so nervous [about the election results]. Are they [the opposition] going to carry out a technical coup d'état, are they going to carry out an electoral fraud from the courts, from the Judiciary?”
He went further to say that some judges are leading a guerra sucia by limiting his freedom of expression.
“What about my liberties? They can slander freely and I cannot exercise my right of reply, my freedom, or my functions as President, who has to guarantee that the country develops in an environment of justice, legality, and democracy.”
These comments came after the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF) ratified precautionary measures to limit the president’s commentary related to the election with the explicit of maintaining neutrality and fairness in the upcoming elections. An additional proposal is the creation of a list of election intervention violations which will be referenced when it comes time to certify the results of the election this summer. AMLO, of course, rejected this and instead retaliated with the retort that he will continue working for the benefit of Mexico and encouraging the country’s transformation with continued focus on stopping huachicoleo, supporting social programs, and fighting racism and classism. He closed out his comments with an AMLO-typical comment:
“…there is no need to get angry, it is a mark of pride to have these corrupt people as adversaries” and the attempts of the opposition “...are going to fail, it is a very harmful conservatism”
The president of Mexico is using the government-sponsored and funded national platform of the mañanera to accuse the opposition of planning a golpe de estado and the judicial branch of collaborating with the opposition to launch a guerra sucia against him. But… AMLO isn’t even running for re-election.
On paper, this election isn’t about AMLO but rather his hand-picked successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, the one whose name is on the ballot. In actuality, however, this election has absolutely everything to do with AMLO. It’s a referendum on the past six years of Morena’s government, at the local, state, and national levels. It’s a referendum on AMLO and his ability to consolidate and retain power – not just in the presidential election, but in every election where Morena is on the ballot.